The enzymatic depolymerization process of PET developed by Carbios remains, to this day, the most documented in terms of yield of recovered monomers at virgin quality. However, the window for technological differentiation is narrowing, and the question is no longer whether PET bioenzymology works, but whether Carbios can transform its intellectual property into industrial capacity before the market bypasses it.
Dependence on enzyme suppliers and locking of the catalytic chain
The enzymatic recycling of PET relies on hydrolases capable of cleaving the ester bonds of the polymer. Carbios has patented optimized enzyme variants, but the production of enzymes at an industrial scale depends on third parties, notably Novozymes (now Novonesis), which dominates the manufacturing of biocatalysts for this type of application.
This point is structural. A company that designs the enzyme but does not produce it in-house exposes itself to a double risk: price dependence and loss of control over supply timelines. Indeed, to supply a plant processing several tens of thousands of tons of PET per year, the volumes of enzymes required are considerable.
Novonesis, for its part, has no strategic interest in remaining a mere subcontractor. The company has the skills in enzymatic engineering and fermentation to develop its own variants or to supply direct competitors of Carbios. The analysis of Carbios’s future in the face of competition necessarily involves this question of vertical integration in the catalytic chain.
Industrialization of enzymatic recycling: Longlaville’s delay compared to Chinese partnerships
The Longlaville plant project in Lorraine is at the center of tensions. Initially scheduled for a close commissioning, the unit has seen its timeline pushed back to 2028. Financing remains a bottleneck, despite announced public support.
Carbios has consumed over 300 million euros without producing at an industrial scale. For a company listed on Euronext Growth, of which nearly 85% of the capital is publicly traded, cash consumption without recurring revenue creates ongoing shareholder pressure. The workforce has been reduced, from about 190 employees in 2024 to around sixty.
Meanwhile, the partnership with Wankai New Materials in China and discussions with Zhink Group outline a scenario where the first operational plant using Carbios technology could operate outside France. This is significant: if industrial proof is established in China, the added value of production and the employment benefits escape the European territory.
Risks associated with technology transfer to China
Licensing an enzymatic technology to a Chinese partner involves a sharing of know-how that is difficult to reverse. Even when framed by intellectual property contracts, the transfer of enzymatic processes exposes Carbios to local replication once patents expire, or even before if the clauses are not strictly enforced.
The precedent exists in other chemical sectors: European companies have transferred catalytic processes to Asia, only to see local competitors emerge within a few years. For Carbios, the question is whether short-term licensing revenues compensate for the loss of control in the medium term.
European regulation on recycled PET: a lever or a trap for Carbios?
The European regulatory framework mechanically drives demand for high-quality recycled PET. Collection obligations require member states to achieve very high rates for plastic bottles, and the PPWR (Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulation) introduces additional constraints on disposable packaging starting in 2026.
On paper, this favors technologies capable of producing r-PET of virgin quality, which traditional mechanical recycling does not guarantee beyond a few cycles. Carbios’s enzymatic process theoretically meets this need.
However, the regulation also pushes towards reuse and source reduction. In other words, the volume of PET to be recycled could decrease if prevention policies are effective. The addressable market is not guaranteed to rise. Competition does not only come from other recyclers but also from a paradigm shift regarding packaging itself.
- Mechanical recycling remains less expensive and absorbs the majority of current post-consumer PET flows, limiting the volumes available for enzymatic recycling.
- Reuse strategies (deposit, reusable containers) reduce the amount of disposable PET in circulation, compressing the upstream resource.
- Other chemical recycling processes (glycolysis, methanolysis) target the same segment of opaque or multilayer PET, sometimes with lower investment costs.
Stock market volatility and financing: the vicious circle of a deep tech without production
The share price of Carbios reflects the gap between technological promise and industrial reality. Without significant revenue from production, the company relies on fundraising, grants, and licensing agreements to finance its operations.
This situation creates high volatility in the stock. Each announcement of a partnership or delay on the Longlaville project triggers sharp movements. For an investment in Carbios, the main risk is not technological but financial: the ability to hold out until the first commercial production without excessive dilution of existing shareholders.
- The lack of recurring revenue necessitates regular capital increases, diluting the participation of historical shareholders.
- Licensing agreements with Asian partners generate flows, but insufficient to cover R&D costs and overhead expenses.
- The board of directors must arbitrate between cash preservation and maintaining internal competencies, following cuts in workforce and R&D.
The enzymatic recycling market for PET, valued at around 1.2 billion dollars in 2025, remains a segment under construction. Carbios occupies a pioneering position, but this lead is only valuable if it translates into treated and sold tons.
The next concrete deadline will be the effective start-up of an industrial line, whether in Longlaville or through a Chinese partner. Without this proof of production, the technology will remain a laboratory asset traded on the stock market.